My understanding of the disagreement appears different than Eli’s. My impression is that the core of the disagreement lies in Robin’s statement:
“This history of when innovation rates sped up by how much just doesn’t seem to support your claim that the strongest speedups are caused by and coincide with new optimization processes, and to a lesser extent protected meta-level innovations”
The fwoom!, god-to-rule-us-all, and issues around models all seem to me to fall out of this contention.
After the discussion around the disagreement, I gave Hal Finney my original and new estimates on these issues. I would be willing to repeat them here if Hal will likewise repeat his, but I’m unsure if anyone is interested anymore.
@Cameron
My understanding of the disagreement appears different than Eli’s. My impression is that the core of the disagreement lies in Robin’s statement:
“This history of when innovation rates sped up by how much just doesn’t seem to support your claim that the strongest speedups are caused by and coincide with new optimization processes, and to a lesser extent protected meta-level innovations”
The fwoom!, god-to-rule-us-all, and issues around models all seem to me to fall out of this contention.
After the discussion around the disagreement, I gave Hal Finney my original and new estimates on these issues. I would be willing to repeat them here if Hal will likewise repeat his, but I’m unsure if anyone is interested anymore.